The Online Travel Agency landscape now and into 2026

The online travel agency (OTA) landscape, which includes global brands such as Expedia Group, Booking Holdings, and Trip.com Group, is undergoing significant shifts in 2025. 

An uncertain political climate, regional differences in demand, and the acceleration of innovation shaped the sector’s performance in the first half of 2025.

OTAs in 2025: Uneven growth

Despite a good start to 2025, the remainder of the year and 2026 remain uneven. The first half of 2025 saw Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Trip.com all post substantial revenue numbers.  

Booking reported an 8% YoY increase in room nights (to 309 million) in Q2, a 13% jump in gross bookings, and 16% revenue growth, all while increasing its B2C mix and loyalty engagement. 

Expedia’s brands saw a 7% jump in booked room nights, 5% growth in overall gross bookings (with B2B up 17%), and a 6% increase in revenue, with much of that improvement due to international markets outpacing North America. 

Trip.com delivered a 16% YoY revenue gain and a gross profit margin of 81%, anchored by significantly higher international bookings and an AI-first product development.

But beneath these headline results, we can see some important regional disparities. The U.S. delivered sluggish results.  Expedia’s largest market saw a softening of both domestic demand and inbound travel to the U.S., down 7%.  Additionally, the U.S. experienced a double-digit decline in cross-border arrivals from Canada and Europe. 

Meanwhile, international and APAC traffic surged, propping up growth for Booking, which continued gaining ground in non - U.S. markets, especially Europe and Asia. 

Trip.com, driven by renewed Chinese outbound travel, saw international bookings jump by 60% in some segments, underscoring the importance of regional diversity.

Politics and travel: The climate of anxiety

Political volatility has been front and center this year. The return of uncertainty across major economies, U.S. political uncertainty, U.S.-China tensions, border disputes, and tightening visa regimes have influenced both traveller sentiment and operator strategies. These dynamics have played out in three primary ways:

1. Safety and Uncertainty - Safety now ranks as the top concern for travelers worldwide, often surpassing even budget anxieties. An increased focus on political climate, perceived hospitality, and local regulations is affecting where people go and how far in advance they are willing to book. Many travelers, especially those in the U.S. and Western Europe, are waiting longer to book. They're seeking flexible (or refundable) options and often shift destinations based on headlines.
2. Regulatory and Currency Shocks - U.S.-China tensions have translated into more visa challenges, slower business travel, and reduced frequencies on some long-haul routes. The result is weighing on traffic between the world’s top two economies. Meanwhile, currency fluctuations (often overlooked by end-consumers) created headwinds for reported gains in average daily rates and profit margins. This is particularly true for U.S.-centric operators like Expedia.
3. Demand Redistribution - Political changes are causing demand to flow away from perceived “at-risk” regions. U.S.-origin travel to Europe and Latin America has dropped in certain quarters, while Latin America and APAC have seen new flows from both North America and Europe.

Still, the general mood remains one of wariness rather than panic. There have been no reported cancellations linked directly to politics or anti-tourist sentiment, but they are seeing a shift toward last-minute bookings and greater discernment in destination choice. This is especially true among higher-spending segments like LGBTQ+ and adventure travelers.

Shifting booking patterns and consumer priorities

The current environment is accelerating changes in how consumers discover, book, and experience travel. Noteworthy trends from OTAs’ own data and industry research include:

• Shorter Booking Windows - Travelers are showing a greater focus on last-minute bookings, partly due to nervousness but also because of seamless flexibility offered by top OTAs. These shorter timelines make dynamic pricing and inventory management both more critical and more complex.
• Refundable vs. Non-Refundable - Expedia noted a shift from refundable to non-refundable rate plans as consumers grapple with economic constraints. They also noted a simultaneous uptick in the use of booking protection and insurance add-ons.
• Loyalty and Direct Mix - Both Booking and Expedia reported success in deepening direct engagement through loyalty (Booking’s Genius program and Expedia’s enhanced offerings). This shifts more of their bookings toward app-based, logged-in, and repeat users, reducing reliance on paid channels and affiliate partners.
• Experience Economy is Thriving - Experience-driven travel, tours, activities, local culture, thrill-seeking, is as strong as ever, particularly among younger, higher-spending demographics, including LGBTQ+ travelers who are both more likely to book experiences and more attuned to brand alignment and authenticity.

Brands up close

Expedia Group

All of Expedia Group’s major brands (Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Vrbo, Orbitz, Travelocity) largely mirrored the parent company’s trends, including strength outside the U.S., with Vrbo’s stabilization resting on new inventory but modest growth, and Hotels.com sliding in Q1 before rebounding as international arrivals picked up. 

The group’s focus on operational efficiency (AI in everything, reduced contractor workforce), more aggressive B2B expansion, and record-setting insurance attach rates points to a growing focus on margin and resilience.

Booking Holdings

Booking.com, Agoda, Priceline, and Kayak all benefited from the slowdown in U.S. competition and the massive wave of travel recovery in Asia. The group is reaping the rewards of its investment in mobile, AI-powered personalization, and loyalty. 

Marketing spend, as well, is moving away from traditional web and toward channels that promote direct bookings (specifically mobile app usage and the popular Genius loyalty program).

Trip.com Group

Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar are all aggressively doubling down on AI-powered trip planning, mobile-first booking, and a rebound in outbound Chinese travel. The company’s share repurchase program, innovations like TripGenie, and a feature-rich app experience are driving market share in APAC, despite global competition.

Outlook: 2025 and Beyond

The consensus from industry forecasters is that the OTA sector will continue to grow for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Market estimates expect global OTA revenues to climb at a 7 - 8% CAGR over the next decade, with mobile transactions, localization, and AI-enabled features carrying brands through periods of uncertainty. But continued traveler engagement will be dependent on:

• Embracing AI and personalization -  for discovery, comparison, and experience planning.
• Maintaining agility -  to pivot in response to local and global political and economic changes.
• Fostering trust and inclusivity - not only in marketing, but in the core experience, to engage with younger and more diverse demographics that demand value, authenticity, and security.

Success won’t be just about redirecting ad spend or optimizing distribution. It will continue to be about product innovation, a focus on customer experience, and increasing trust and credibility with a traveling public that is demanding flexibility and security before and during their travel experiences.